Abstract

Climate variability and change is increasingly perceived as a major environmental issue the world over, with far-reaching consequences for future generations especially on rain-fed agricultural communities.

However, examining the link between climate change policy response sets of perception of local peoples, adaptation responses and their determinants are still receiving less attention today. This study examines farmers’ perception of climate change and its implications on adaptation strategies undertaken by farmers in Muyuka subdivision. Using a stratified random sampling, a self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted with 200 farmers in Muyuka subdivision.

A four-point Likert scale technique alongside descriptive statistics was employed to assess farmers’ perceptions of climate variability. Linear regression was employed to identify trends in climatic parameters (temperature, rainfall and rainy days) and tested for significance via t-test analysis.

Empirical climate data was corroborated with farmers’ perception using IPCC (2010) probability levels. Chi square test statistic was used to verify if farmers’ perceptions of climate variability vary by farmers’ characteristics. Logistic regression model was employed to assess determinants of adoption of adaptation strategies.

Results showed that farmers are aware of climate variability and change as 83% perceived increase in current temperatures and 67% uphold a decrease in current rainfall and these representations corroborate with empirical data trends especially to temperature than rainfall with significant differences in perceptions by locality, age, education level.

To farmers, climate variability is caused by tri-factors: God’s control, human and natural processes and has brought about increase pest/diseases, decline in yields, and stunted growth in crops, decline soil productivity, changes in agricultural calendar.

To this, 72% and 58% of farmers have adopted adaptation strategies to perceived rainfall and temperature variability respectively by planting shade trees (22%), planting different crops (16%), diversifying to non-farm activities (16%), constructing a farm water collection scheme (14%), undertaking soil conservation practices (11%) and by performing the “Ma’leey” annual dance.

However, farmers were limited by lack of credit/income (47%), no water sources ((9%), no land (14%), lack of knowledge (16%) to undertake major adaptations. Farmers’ perception or knowledge on climate variability/change was found to positively increase the likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies to rainfall and temperature variability. Farmers are aware of climate variability and their views corroborate with empirical data.

Poverty remains a major barrier to farmers in adopting adaptation measures while perceptions of farmers and other institutional variables constitute major factors to boost up adoption of adaptation strategies by farmers.

As such, farmers’ perceptions and representation alongside traditional beliefs should be mainstreamed into climate variability/change-adaptation policy frameworks and also in the designing of adaptation strategies for farmers as perception is a complementary knowledge system to science. Farmers especially women should be sensitized and educated on climate variability. Local Institutions should be empowered as they play a great role in influencing adoption of adaptation strategies by farmers.

CHAPTER ONE

GENERAL INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the study

Climate variability and change is increasingly perceived as a major global issue with far-reaching consequences for future generations (Evans & Steven, 2007). It is estimated that without rapid implementation of pro-poor, climate-informed development policies, climate change impacts could result in 100 million more people in extreme poverty by 2030 (Hallegatte et al., 2016). Climate change is today a vexing issue for many sectors particularly to climate-dependent households especially those in the agricultural sector.

Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the average state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period, typically decades or longer (World Meteorological Organisation [WMO], 2011).

It is modeled that climate change and climate variability are expected to increase with frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions in Africa (Department for International Development [DFID], 2004 cited in Nhemachena and Hassan, 2007) with small scale agriculture being the most vulnerable to its manifestations.

Globally, already simulated situations of a growing variability and change in climate have been established, with the global mean temperature increasing by 0.7oC within the last century as indicated by scientist the world over and from global intergovernmental organizations (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007). Though without absolute certainty, it opens up a global, national and local concern as most of man’s activities such as agriculture is climate dependent and climate sensitive.

Meanwhile, recent projections for Africa’s climate change scenario through modeling, indicates continuous and stronger warming (1.5-6.50C) with a wider range of precipitation uncertainty of approximately between (-30 and 30%) characterized by substantial dry spell lengths (Sylla et al., 2016).

Cameroon’s rainfall in recent years has largely become inconsistent. It is characterized by decreasing trend in the number of rainy days and total amount of rainfall at a rate of 43mm per decade for the country. This has already been foretold in about 80% of the country, with a reported increasing trend in mean temperature of about 0.91oC (Ayonghe, 2001).

Agriculture is still a major human economic activity across many areas of the world. As such, it remains indispensable to families or human populations in Africa. It is principally considered as the central economic activity for most of the Sub-Saharan Countries of Africa within which Cameroon is found.

It remains the backbone of economic development, sustaining livelihoods in the continent in general. In this regard, the role of agriculture in Africa cannot be underestimated as it provides employment, contributes to the gross domestic product, food sufficiency and security and also provides raw materials for agro-based industries.

Agriculture incorporates about 70% of the total population in Cameroon and contributes to about 35% of the country’s GDP (Molua & Lambi, 2006). Thus, it is considered as ‘the mainstay’ and ‘main sustainer’ of the Cameroonian economy and a greater proportion of her livelihoods. Majority of the population in the country is agriculturally dependent and often described as “the wretched of the earth” (Fanon, 1961).

Majority of the farm households are involved in Small-scale farming. Small-scale farming in particular and the agricultural sector of developing economies especially in Sub-Saharan African [SSA] communities within which Cameroon is found is noted to face unprecedented and unmanageable pressures from climate variability and change (Tata & Lambi, 2015).

With the identification of the climate change issue around the later decades after the second world war, considerable national and international efforts on a global scale are being directed especially, to understand the linkages between climate and a range of social and economic activities like agriculture, amongst many others (WMO, 2011).

Agriculture industry and its related outdoor production processes depend on particular levels of temperature and precipitation. As such, it is considered as one of the most climate sensitive industries (Ackerman & Stanton, 2013).

These growing changes in climatic parameters, which are considered in the country as the main drivers of agricultural systems as they determine their growth, and consequent yield and the proliferation of specific pest and diseases amongst others (Molua & Lambi, 2006; Tata & Lambi, 2015), are seen to impound hard on farming as witnessed by delayed sowing, changes in cropping patterns, higher evidence of pest and diseases, frequent and persistent droughts, less availability of water in tanks and canals for irrigation, reduced profits due to increased prices of inputs and wages as well as stagnation of output prices, shift towards non-farm occupations, migration, and asset disinvestment. These effects remain a major concern for farmers as it destabilizes farmer’s livelihoods and their overall wellbeing.

 

The paradigm shift today in climate change issues is focused on mitigation and adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change and variability. This is clearly spelled out in the thirteenth Sustainable Development Goal [SDG], which calls for climate change awareness and the urgency for countries to build resilience in the midst of climate change by the year 2030.

Adaptation to climate variability and change is today a key strategy on board in the midst of the complexity and the continuous severity of climate change and variability on man and his entire physical, biological and socioeconomic systems including agriculture. Thus, neutralizing the potential adverse effects through adaptation strategies is a key strategy if welfare losses to this vulnerable segment of the society are to be avoided (Maddison, 2006).

Common adaptation strategies employed by farmers include changing planting dates, adoption of mixed crops, crop diversification, increasing spraying intervals, irrigation, use of new crop varieties, expansion of farm size, help from relatives and dependents that live on the farm, supplemental occupations or livelihood diversification and usage of organic fertilizers amongst others (Epule & Bryant, 2016).

Climate scenarios are difficult to understand; complex and intangible and their implications become worse in the phase of the inability of farmers to identify that climate change is occurring and to be unable to adapt to such changes.

Likewise, a lack of farmers’ knowledge on the trend of climatic parameters goes to worsen the situation. It is thus, a general cry to put much greater emphasis on reducing the impact of climate variability and change at smallholder farm levels.

Most climate change models predict that the damages will adversely affect the small farmers, especially in the rain fed areas. It will remain promising to farmers who have better adaptive capacity and are less vulnerable to climatic effects and who are aware of climate change and its manifestations.

The issue of identifying climate change is vested on the concept of perception. The notion of perception is recent in climate change discourses but has been used in most disciplines especially Psychology and Sociology.

Climate change described as a phenomenon which cannot be seen, smelled, heard, or touched as a discernible object is seen to be mitigated and understood through the consideration of people’s representation and a corroboration of such representations with scientific or meteorological data.

Nicholson-cole (2005) writes: “understanding how people construct and represent climate change is critical as certain visual and mental imagery can provoke counter-productive responses” (cited in Moloney et al., 2014) especially in planning, managing and adopting strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Most importantly, it becomes very delightful if farmers’ perceptions (which we consider as mental imagery and constructs) are in line with historical meteorological data which show the real manifestation of climate change scenario.

These conceptions are also considered in assessing the determinants of farmer’s choice of specific adaptation strategies they employ. An understanding of these issues can provide policy insights for identifying target variables to enhance the use of adaptation measures in the agricultural sector.

1.2. Statement and Scope of the Research Problem

Climate change discourses are at the centre of many development issues the world over today. Despite mankind’s efforts in combating climate change, it is still discovered that the issue of climate change is intangible and numerous adaptation strategies are not workable for lowly agricultural communities and households.

Without contradiction, climate remains the centre of our agricultural systems. As such, farmers ought to have much information on this parameter as agriculture remains their major livelihood sustainer.

Understanding climate change and variability manifestations remains a key to building resilience to such uncertainty. Agriculture is considered a major booster for the Cameroon’s 2035 vision, but, her agriculture just like in other SSA countries is predominantly rain-fed and climate-sensitive. Climate variability manifested through fluctuations in rainfall and temperature is today complex. As such, the gardener in the midst of such shocks and stresses, designs better adaptation practices to reduce the effects on his/her crops for better yields, good income and a resultant better livelihood.

Inversely, most considered issues of climate manifestations are often one tailed- more national or international than at the local. Evans &Stevens (2007) exposed this problem:

“…Go to an international climate change summit, or meet with policymakers in a national environment ministry, and the language you will hear – and almost certainly be employing yourself – revolves around terms like ‘emissions intensity’, ‘policies and measures’, ‘cap and trade’, ‘Clean Development Mechanism’.

What’s usually missing is a robust account of how human behaviour, identity, values and aspirations fit in – of the stories that people tell themselves and each other, which will ultimately determine what they hear when someone says the phrase ‘climate change’ to them, and what they will do about it” (Evans & Stevens, 2007).

However, climate policy response sets which include both options of knowledge/ perception of local or indigenous peoples and adaptation responses, are still receiving less attention as local people’s views are not assessed in order to develop specific adaptation strategies to be used by the same population.

However, climate change affects all especially “the poor locally based people who are most vulnerable to its effects” as the case of the Muyuka Sub-Division in Cameroon, whose rural inhabitants depend primarily on agriculture as their major economic activity. As such, it becomes problematic to this subdivision as climate variability and change is ongoing and is noted to be a hazard for its agricultural system and its related processes.

Muyuka subdivision is a major bread basket zone whose influence goes even beyond the national territory. Though agriculture is considered as an ever-reliable income-source activity to farmers, it is however highly exposed to the adverse effects of climate variability and change.

As if not enough, devised adaptation strategies seem not to be sustainable, probably because the human behaviour (Perceptions) of the farmers have not been factored in.

This is glaring as some farmers who own small farms, find it difficult in providing the adequate inputs into production, which still remains his only source of livelihood. This is today intensified by climate change and as such farming activities are at the mercy of climate whose effects are untold and the duration for its manifestations is not known.

In conjunction, some farmers lack nearby water sources for other farm processes. As such, it raises many questions as to whether farmers are aware of climate change and the type of adaptation measures to adopt in their farms. Despite the necessary recommendations and adaptation strategies identified to ameliorate farmer’s livelihood through the revitalization of the agricultural sector, it has still not met its objective.

These adaptation options are not geared in line to meet farmer’s needs and do not in any way consider farmers’ views and knowledge about climate change and a consideration of the problems that hinder them from adopting particular adaptation options.

With the growing issue of climate variability in the country and the subdivision, most works relating to climate change have focused on the impacts of climate variability on agriculture.

The few works on perception carried out in the country remain solely on perception of climate variability especially farmers’ knowledge and perception to climate variability with focus on just the causes of climate variability (Balgah et al., 2016) and Defang et al. (2014) who opened up the way for perception in the subdivision but focuses on gender analysis of perception and adaptations.

There exists a dearth in the literature in the country as a whole and in the subdivision in particular on the link between farmers’ perceptions and its impact on adaptation strategies and the possible factors that influence farmers to adopt adaptation strategies.

Most especially, no work has been done to investigate the role of perception on farmers’ adaptations within the area.

These issues if not considered will likely impact on farmers’ performance and increase the severity of the stressor on the sector. Most especially, crop failures might increase and farm income affected. This will affect the food security of the subdivision. In line with these issues raised, this work therefore seeks to investigate into the following problems.

1.3 Research Questions

1.3.1 Main Research Question

The main research question of this study is: what are farmers’ perceptions of climate change and how does it influences adaptations strategies put in place by farmers in Muyuka Sub-Division?

1.3.2 Specific Research Questions

1. What perceptions do farmers’ have on climate variability in the Muyuka Sub-Division?
2. Is there any corroboration between farmers’ perception of climate variability and the historical meteorological data in Muyuka Sub-Division?
3. What types of measures have farmers taken to adapt to climate variability in Muyuka Sub-Division?
4. What influences farmers to adopt adaptation strategies to climate change in the Muyuka Sub-Division?

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